Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 20.769617 24.956236 29.555689 34.955737 41.093118 47.822766 55.730053
2025-09-21 14.909387 20.469725 27.192937 35.795777 46.378511 58.836649 74.466540
2025-09-28 10.572558 16.295926 23.798781 34.087606 47.540920 64.236043 86.191363
2025-10-05 8.671595 14.698203 23.127043 35.320149 52.006893 73.522757 102.777653
2025-10-12 7.176156 13.296685 22.380619 36.160618 55.777926 81.905680 118.430120
2025-10-19 5.985492 12.081126 21.647766 36.803955 59.153834 89.777939 133.623434
2025-10-26 5.108076 11.177316 21.207599 37.732384 62.869533 98.171324 149.758468
2025-11-02 4.145426 9.912471 19.988259 37.283387 64.446165 103.554637 161.884212
2025-11-09 3.473094 9.031901 19.257018 37.471048 66.897560 110.195740 175.921649
2025-11-16 2.851839 8.105438 18.298742 37.149499 68.472031 115.550779 188.245141
2025-11-23 2.258666 7.085310 17.008255 36.101068 68.764106 118.938080 197.761645
2025-11-30 1.969300 6.683885 16.824443 36.934979 72.099513 126.994140 214.333987
2025-12-07 1.552471 5.884892 15.798429 36.270464 73.111582 131.841358 226.820826
2025-12-14 1.322220 5.509242 15.597385 37.126988 76.772437 141.027047 246.276892
2025-12-21 0.963594 4.623616 14.126083 35.368866 75.750948 142.695492 254.262620
2025-12-28 0.843007 4.430593 14.190968 36.637088 80.129145 153.201782 276.224490
2026-01-04 0.719885 4.179018 14.070680 37.501746 83.804620 162.671794 296.825217
2026-01-11 0.606997 3.914178 13.868897 38.163514 87.122399 171.646468 316.880933
2026-01-18 0.521827 3.719071 13.811235 39.118416 91.022099 181.712473 338.939458
2026-01-25 0.406515 3.325851 13.144957 38.656635 92.179654 187.145662 353.662000
2026-02-01 0.329909 3.063454 12.789899 38.849644 94.591311 194.785754 372.150606
2026-02-08 0.255976 2.756716 12.238313 38.518929 95.930436 200.581147 387.734839
2026-02-15 0.184542 2.391173 11.416523 37.440485 95.680969 203.541664 398.665841